He doesn't really give the reason why "markets have barely flinched". The prevailing narrative is you may as well ignore valuations and put your money in an index fund because they've always done well. Hence the lack of flinching.
3eb7988a1663 1 days ago [-]
I have been looking for something to make sense with this insanity. Every energy analyst I see says the world is rushing towards energy ruin. Yet stocks keep reaching all time highs as if it is just another day. Even if you wave a magic wand and eliminate all hostilities today, it will take months to years to get all of the infrastructure flowing at the same level as it was two months ago.
Yesterday, there was a news story saying that gas might soon dip below $4/gallon just because the strait was momentarily open again. Even if the strait had remained open for more than 24 hours, it is still going to take a month for the oil tankers in waiting to transit across the ocean. Months to refill reservoirs. Energy companies are not going to drop prices at a moments notice.
Which is of course discounting the political realities of the situation: Iran is in a fight for its life. Iran knows they need to stand firm or they will lose all autonomy and invite a future attack from Israel.
Yesterday, there was a news story saying that gas might soon dip below $4/gallon just because the strait was momentarily open again. Even if the strait had remained open for more than 24 hours, it is still going to take a month for the oil tankers in waiting to transit across the ocean. Months to refill reservoirs. Energy companies are not going to drop prices at a moments notice.
Which is of course discounting the political realities of the situation: Iran is in a fight for its life. Iran knows they need to stand firm or they will lose all autonomy and invite a future attack from Israel.