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BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff (electrek.co)
dalyons 4 days ago [-]
The chinese manufacturers seem to be the only ones willing to make cheap decent EVs. They are scaling like crazy, I hope they keep it up, might turn out to be one of the biggest forces in mitigating emissions. The legacy auto companies who only sell expensive luxury EVs deserve to be crushed by BYD and friends, I have no sympathy left at this point.
srockets 4 days ago [-]
Some Chinese auto manufactures are pretty good, but a lot are startups in the worst sense of the term: a couple of months from shutting down.

Cars are not disposable, so you kinda want a 15-years of support. Which isn’t just the brand keeping the lights on, it’s a whole service infrastructure.

That’s where Tesla fails, and where a lot of Chinese manufacturers fail: they don’t build one. In that, they aren’t very different than Tesla.

thebruce87m 4 days ago [-]
> That’s where Tesla fails

What do you mean by this? I get more support from Tesla than any other car I’ve had. Bug fixes, new features, all OTA.

In terms of service infrastructure, I can open a ticket from my phone, chat with a service person and have an appointment booked. They will even send someone out to the car to fix any issues. I had my window realigned and never even interacted physically with the person.

HWR_14 3 days ago [-]
I have no idea why I would want an OTA patch to my car. But I also don't know why I would want any apps or other complex software in my car.
AlotOfReading 3 days ago [-]
You have complex software in your car regardless if it was purchased anytime in the last couple decades. The difference is whether you receive updates when it's brought in to a service center, or OTA. I personally prefer the former, even as someone whose job is simplified by the latter.
HWR_14 3 days ago [-]
I've never had or wanted to update the software on my car.
more_corn 3 days ago [-]
You certainly want to update the software on your car if it contains critical bugs. Pretending there’s no software in your car doesn’t make it so.
HWR_14 2 days ago [-]
My car doesn't have critical bugs. And instead of making software more complicated, it should be made simple to reduce the chance of a critical bug to zero.
srockets 1 days ago [-]
You are conflating the wrong thing. A simple thing isn't necessarily better or easier to quality assure.
unparagoned 3 days ago [-]
So you’ve never had a product update. Do you do your own service on the car to prevent garages from doing any updates?
AlotOfReading 3 days ago [-]
Has your car never had a recall, or are you simply unaware of any software recalls that have been done to it? Recalls are often done with software updates these days, so if you're not applying updates you're deliberately choosing not to apply safety fixes.
HWR_14 2 days ago [-]
Last year there were five major recalls. One was a software fix for backup cameras not always working. Two were Tesla software issues. Two were non-Tesla hardware issues. I think if I avoid a Tesla, I don't have to worry about software updates for a while.
AlotOfReading 1 days ago [-]
There were dozens of recalls in December alone. Every manufacturer has software bugs that need recalls, or fixes for hardware issues that involve software workarounds.
thebruce87m 3 days ago [-]
> Each vehicle on the road contains around a hundred microcontrollers (MCUs) to operate lower-level functions, such as electric seats, transmission changes, and range reporting.

https://www.arm.com/markets/automotive/zonal-microcontroller....

The software that runs on these microcontrollers is not bug free. At the very minimum, having an OTA update fix a bug reduces the number of journeys with the bug by one vs driving to the service centre and wasting your own time.

Also, I realise it’s a common hn trope to want a technology-free car, but having a coffee at lunch time and watching Netflix on the big screen is one of the few times I get to myself in a post-child world. All of the infotainment technology is great to be honest, from the charging experience to the Apple Music integration.

HWR_14 3 days ago [-]
I understand the value of a large screen. I don't understand the value of it not being a dumb monitor. My cellphone can play Netflix on the screen just fine, thank you. And it is far more likely to have interesting non-Netflix entertainment options as well.

And yes, code on microcontrollers can have bugs. But bugs mostly occur with advanced features or having those features hook into more basic ones.

thebruce87m 3 days ago [-]
The general public can’t handle non vertically integrated things. My mum will never, ever know how to switch inputs on a display despite growing up with the first TVs and using one every day. My wife can just about do it.

Also it’s not just Netflix, it has other integrations and a full browser.

> And yes, code on microcontrollers can have bugs. But bugs mostly occur with advanced features or having those features hook into more basic ones.

It’s much worse than you think. Legacy car makers treat each micro only as an item on a BOM, software and all. It’s getting better now, but you would have a vendor for each of those microcontrollers with no coordination between any of them. The path from bug fix to rollout was non existent for a lot of them.

Not to mention the microcontrollers themselves are probed / final tested using VBA in a piece of “software” built on top of Microsoft Excel. No, I’m not joking.

I’m also still getting extra safety features added to my Tesla. I now get cross traffic alerts when reversing.

HWR_14 2 days ago [-]
I know it's more than just Netflix. But I'm sure it is in all ways inferior to the offerings on the smartphone.

Your Tesla is getting extra features on a system that I don't want at all.

thebruce87m 2 days ago [-]
> I know it's more than just Netflix. But I'm sure it is in all ways inferior to the offerings on the smartphone.

Bigger picture and better sound in the car, which is 100% of the audiovisual experience.

> Your Tesla is getting extra features on a system that I don't want at all.

That’s fine. In your original comment you expressed your ignorance on two topics and people have tried to educate you on both. We seem to have bottomed out on this one which is fine. Not wanting extra safety features or immediate bug fixes is definitely an opinion to have and I’m sure we could find some others who share it.

On the other topic you have also expanded your knowledge on why software needs updates, although your conclusion that your car doesn’t have any critical bugs needs a citation.

2 days ago [-]
srockets 2 days ago [-]
What about hardware? If a part breaks, how long do you have to wait for a new one? (Insurance costs for Teslas are extremely high because parts take so long to acquire).

How often does it break? (Tesla notoriously don’t use automotive quality parts, which reduces costs, and increases MTTF).

And who can fix it? Can you get service manuals for it?

Not every car is a Hilux, notorious for being extremely fixable, but every serious car manufacturer had a whole infrastructure for serious after sales support.

Tesla is still not there, and by choice. That was never a priority for them.

thebruce87m 2 days ago [-]
Never had a part break. I had a creaking noise from the boot trims and they were replaced quickly in a remote visit.

Waiting for parts seems to be an industry wide problem at the moment, and my anecdotal evidence supports this with many people I know waiting for parts for their non-EV vehicles. My colleague was without his Ford Puma for 2 weeks due to waiting on a part.

prmoustache 4 days ago [-]
> never even interacted physically with the person.

Note that some people would not view that as a plus.

Not an owner myself but I get service and experience might differ greatly depending on country.

thebruce87m 4 days ago [-]
> Note that some people would not view that as a plus.

Those people would have the choice of driving to the garage and waiting if they wished to. I chose for the home visit then cycled to work and came home to a fixed car.

saturn8601 3 days ago [-]
Keep in mind that China is on a completely different level when it comes to repair and the ecosystem around repair. What you might see as an unacceptable situation might be workable in China because of their freedom and ability to repair and remix parts.

I dont want to downplay your comment as there are also pictures of cars rotting in fields so despite the repair culture they dont have their incentives aligned 100%, i'm just trying to see both sides of the issue.

[1]:https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-china-ev-graveyards/

srockets 2 days ago [-]
The ability to have devices that are considered unfixable fixed by Chinese tradespeople is amazing.

But you can’t get that ROW, and for Chinese car companies to be successful outside China, that’s a must.

papa_bear 4 days ago [-]
I was under the impression that Tesla has put a lot of effort into building out support infrastructure? My perception is a bit clouded by the fact that I live a few miles from a service center.
srockets 2 days ago [-]
Try to get spare parts for teslas. Or fix them at a non-Tesla owned shop. Both are 100x more complex and expensive than any other mass produced car made in the last decade 20 years. And it is like that by design: it was never a priority for them.
nextworddev 4 days ago [-]
It's called dumping EVs with state subsidies to hollow out automobile industries in the west and Japan. No thanks.
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
PRC subsidy is like $2000 per car and decreasing, substantially lower than US domestic subsidies per vehicle. They're also selling for 2x PRC MSRP abroad, i.e. Euro EVs like 15000-20000 more expensive. Explicitly to avoid dumping and to make up thin margins in competitive domestic market. They don't need to dump to be competitive, reality is western automobile industries currently can't remotely compete, hence tariffs to buy time until they can, or forever because they simply can't.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
Not sure where you are getting the subsidy figure. China's EV subsidies have been around since 2009, extended and renewed every 2-4 years. The last consumer "direct purchase subsidies" ended in Dec, 2022, but was extended as tax credit for another 4 years for an estimate cost of $72+B in June of 2023. That's in addition to China's provisional ICE-to-EV conversion subsidy of ~20,000 yuan to prop up slowing EV sales, started in May, 2024 and ends December 31 2024, today.

China's cost competitiveness comes from China's protectionism and subsidies past decade. The EU Commission has already conducted an antisubsidy investigation against Chinese EV imports and imposed countervailing measures earlier this year (see EU's Implementation of Regulation 2024/1866) based on prohibited export subsidies given to Chinese EV makers (or MIC EVs).

DiogenesKynikos 1 days ago [-]
> The EU Commission has already conducted an antisubsidy investigation against Chinese EV imports and imposed countervailing measures earlier this year

The outcome of that investigation was predetermined.

The French government began pushing for tariffs. The Germans opposed the idea, but France turned out to have more political support on this issue. The EU needs a technical justification for tariffs, so the Commission launched an investigation. That investigation came to the conclusion it needed to in order to justify the policy that had already been decided on at the political level.

The conclusions of the report are petty ridiculous. China has a much more competitive EV market than the EU does, and Chinese manufacturers are much lower cost as a consequence. When Chinese companies export EVs to Europe, they sell them at a very substantial markup, which is the exact opposite of dumping.

The types of subsidies the EU is complaining about are the exact same types of subsidies that EU countries themselves (and US states) give. They're things like government funding for charging infrastructure and sales-tax exemptions.

nextworddev 4 days ago [-]
say your figure is correct. now also tally the subsidies on all of bill of materials as well as favorable loan terms.
Arnt 4 days ago [-]
I think you're saying that if Ford buys cheap and good batteries from CATL that's fair, but if BYD does that's a hidden subsidy. Right?
nextworddev 4 days ago [-]
You are assuming that Ford and BYD pays same prices, but are you sure about that?
Arnt 4 days ago [-]
I consider it very likely.

I shared office with an enterprise salesman for a year. We talked over lunch. Among the things he said: If you want to sell to someone in the long run, then be honest with them. Don't give their competitors better prices and lie about it. It's okay to tell someone that their competitors get better pricing because of volume or for other understandable reasons, but lying is not okay, because people will find out eventually and then your long-term relationship goes sour.

CATL clearly wants to be a really big battery vendor and sell to lots of battery purchasers. I consider it very likely that they treat Ford well.

tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
Not sure if that's the best way to describe China's business model/practice. WRT, EV batteries in particular[1]:

  ... China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded.

  ... Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions.  That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say.

  ... “We want to comply, and we have to comply,” said one executive with a foreign car maker. “There’s no other option.”
1. Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules Car maker is allowed to use high-end foreign technology, while rivals are squeezed into buying local, Trefor Moss, May 17, 2018, the Wall Street Journal

I don't know any specifics of Ford and CATL, but it was always the Chinese gov't driving their growth either by protectionism or undercutting foreign competitors with subsidies which is why Chinese EVs are being pushed back by the trade regulators in EU/US/Turkiye/France/etc..

I have no reason to believe that it was motivated China's altruism to pass the best price to their American customers.

3 days ago [-]
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
For 1000kg of steel, bulk of raw input materials, we're looking at ~$500 price difference, i.e. negligible. If you want BOM for other materials, lazy napkin math: PRC auto is ~10% of gdp. PRC industrial subsidies ~2% of GDP. Even if you assume entire industrial subsidy goes towards auto, that still puts it at ~20% of industry. Can western manufacturers compete if PRC cars was ~20% more expensive. Can they compete if BYD seagull was was $12000, vs it selling for $20000 abroad. No. That's without considering west subsidizes the shit out of their auto, and downstream sectors, i.e. US energy.
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
I read you can somehow buy cheap version of car for internal market and hack it to allow operating outside China (and to translate UI text from Chinese to Russian). At least there are people offering hacking/localizing services. No need to pay more!
dalyons 4 days ago [-]
Your opinion. To me it seems like actual innovation, and delivery on the cost promise of EVs (vastly simpler internals, so they should cost less)

The west is going to screw around with tarrifs which will delay the inevitable for a few years, at massive cost to their consumers, while the rest of the world jumps ahead to cheap green cars.

FooBarWidget 4 days ago [-]
Why should the green energy transition be bottlenecked by entrenched incumbent players' profit margins? Are their profit margins more important than averting global climate disaster? We have a green technology undercapacity, not overcapacity.
kayewiggin 4 days ago [-]
Why should Europe allowed China to attack and destroy its car industry, when China is also helping Russia destroy Europe militarily?

Good thing Europe woke up earlier this year. impact of the EU’s tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers. In November, Chinese automakers captured just 7.4% of Europe’s EV market, a noticeable drop from 8.2% in October and their lowest share since March [1].

As for US, the 100% tariff has safely protected America from Chinese EVs thus far.

[1]https://www.autoblog.com/news/chinas-ev-invasion-hits-a-wall

dalyons 4 days ago [-]
“Protected America from Chinese EVs” - aka, ensuring the long term irrelevance and stagnation of American car manufacturers. They will keep their sales temporarily while the rest of the world leaves them behind
surgical_fire 4 days ago [-]
What causes issues to Europe's car industry is not Chinese cheap EVs in Europe. There are not even many Chinese EVs driving around here, those tariffs will have very little impact.

What damaged the EU cae makers was that they had a very good market in China, and Chinese EV makers could step up and make cars that were more desirable/affordable for their domestic market. The loss of profits in China is what hurt everyone, because that country alone is a very large market.

JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B 4 days ago [-]
> destroy its car industry

The car industry that closed factories all over Europe and sold expensive cars made in poor countries?

"Too big to fail" is not a product statement.

FooBarWidget 4 days ago [-]
> China is also helping Russia destroy Europe militarily

This is a disingenuous framing based on the mere fact that China continues to do business with Russia. China also continues to do business with Europe and Ukraine, so one can just as easily argue that China is helping Europe destroy Russia. Have you seen the number of Chinese-made commercial-grade drones used by Ukraine?

China is "destroying European carmakers" as much as your local supermarket A "destroying" supermarket B. It's called competition. As someone else said, Chinese subsidies have already declined, way way before the EU tarriffs went into effect, and the EU and US can also decide to subsidize their carmakers.

kayewiggin 4 days ago [-]
> Have you seen the number of Chinese-made commercial-grade drones used by Ukraine?

China Is Cutting Off Drone Supplies Critical to Ukraine War Effort [1]. China is reportedly making drones for Russia instead, according to multiple intelligence officials.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-is-...

FooBarWidget 3 days ago [-]
Since when are "intelligence officials" considered reliable sources of facts rather than sources of propaganda?
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
Today you sell a country a computer, engineering software, books, chips and industrial machines, tomorrow you have missiles pointed at you designed using that computer and manufactured using that machines.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
The problem here isn't that we don't want to transition to clean green energy, but that China wants to monopolize that, not by market competition, but by mercantilist practices.
FooBarWidget 3 days ago [-]
So why isn't the EU stimulating domestic EV development, and is only putting up a tarriff wall?
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
Sure, everyone wants to be next China and is busy "emulating" them. Biden passed the IRA in 2022 which requires local critical material sourcing/manufacturing and excludes any materials, parts sourced from China, inspired by China's anticompetitive practices since 2015. This practice is commonly called local content requirement (aka, LCA) in international trade lingo, and one of the two subsidies prohibitions under the WTO SCM Agreement.

Guess who's whining? China filed a WTO complaint (WT/DS623) against the US IRA earlier this year, accusing the US of violating what China has violated past 10 years.

The EU is also working on theirs, called CRMA approved earlier this year, but nothing that would match Papa Xi's blatant protectionism; or China's annual $270B fossile fuel subsidies to support cheap energy or overcapacity; or China's insatiable appetite for coals and carbon emission.

FooBarWidget 3 days ago [-]
Everything you cited is just putting up more barriers and decoupling. None of that result directly in EV or green energy development.

Sounds like you're proving my point: they care more about protectionism than about averting global climate disaster.

tooltalk 2 days ago [-]
Sure, that's because everything China did since 2015 was just putting up more barriers to delay green energy development or EV transition for everyone else. China hates it when other do the same to promote their local clean energy development as it inteferes with their quest for domination.

Yep, exactly. It's not "sounds like" -- China's protectionist, mercantilist trades practices have no place in this side of the water. The world is really not too interested in China's weaponization of clean energy or resources.

FooBarWidget 2 days ago [-]
So you're saying Chinese protectionism prevents US and EU from developing green technology, and that's why US and EU will now also engage in proctionism, even though US and EU still don't have sizable green technology development after doing so, and that is also China's fault??

You're not making sense.

tooltalk 18 hours ago [-]
Sure, sometimes you fight evil with evil. I've also already cited multiple sources on how China delayed everyone's transition to EVs and now as a result both the US/EU in particular are now having to build their own supply-chain from ground up to counter China's weaponization of clean energy initiatives.

No need to pretend Papa Xi's mercantilism is all about original innovation, working 996, or Qian Xuesen's vision.

dalyons 4 days ago [-]
They have better technology. Better batteries, innovative drive trains, cheaper chassis, better product market fit. This is supposed to be a pro technology forum.
bravo33 3 days ago [-]
that is the problem they cannot deal with the truth if the car is better you have to recognize that regardless of where it is made. The Chinese absolutely dominate on batteries they also have unique IP on different types of batteries, they are cheaper, better charging cycles, the best energy density at scale. They are also competing in the luxury watches category which I am have a keen interest in I have a few collection that I have acquired apart from the ones I got from my fathers estate, the quality and cut of the sapphire they use on the watches, the jewels they use is getting better, the hairspring, the gear each category is getting better. I am telling you that the Chinese watch industry can now produce a better quality watch than the rolex detona including a better movement they only thing that people can argue against now is that they can't write the word "ROLEX" on it and that they don't have "Heritage" ( which they don't because they cannot go back in time, but I'll tell you want they can do they can go forward which is better), every measurable quality like finishing and polish everything better in every way physically other things like marketing and thing that exist in the customers mind they can't control.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
That's not exactly how it happened. Sony of Japan was the first to successfully commercialize lithium ion batteries, most commonly used in EVs, in the early 1990's; quickly followed by South Korea -- most or 3/4 of all active lithium ion battery patents come from either Japan or South Korea.

China was very late to the EV battery game and LFP was more or less their only choice, which was deemed inferior for EVs due to its low energy density, but whose core patents were all about to expire -- ie, great for exports. They are effectively patent-free now.

In short, the Chinese gov't essentially forced all key EV battery industry leaders to waive their IPR to access China's local market; then effectively banned them and forced their customers, EV OEMs, to switch to local Chinese battery suppliers, who were still learning to make batteries under MIIT's Regulation on Power Standard since 2015/2016 (announced/enforced). That's essentially how China came to corner the battery supply-chain and scale up/commoditize their production at the expensive of everyone else past 10 years.

jychang 4 days ago [-]
EV companies haven't been directly subsidized in China since 2022.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/slowdown-in-china-ev-sa...

> As of January 1, 2023, OEMs in China are no longer offered financial subsidies for EV production

https://insideevs.com/news/716063/china-ev-subsidies-byd-tes...

> China’s aid to domestic new energy vehicles amounted to roughly $5.6 billion until 2022 when the direct payments to manufacturers were phased out.

China doesn't pay out any direct subsidies to their EV manufacturer. They only has a tax rebate for new EVs now- just like the USA $7500 tax rebate for EVs. And USA companies like Tesla can get that rebate in China as well, so the playing field in the Chinese market has been even since 2022.

China has given a total of $5.6bil in subsidies over 13 years. Ford (by itself) has $36bil cash on hand in Q3 2024. Ford, by itself, can easily spend enough R&D money to match China. These are all numbers that anyone can read SEC filings to verify.

Talking about "Chinese subsidies" is just pathetic whining and propaganda by western car companies, to cover up for their incompetent mismanagement when they can easily do it themselves.

If you hear a car company whine about Chinese subsidies, that just means they want your tax dollars to pad their profits.

maxglute 4 days ago [-]
All of the excuses - subsidy, dumping, weak domestic consumption -> export overcapacity (despite % of auto exports lower than JP/SKR).

PRC is doing to EVs what Ford did to Model T (500USD when competition cost $2000). Anyone with a brainknows it's technically possible to make extremely cheap basic cars, but in most places with entrenched auto interests, not politically feasible.

Yeul 3 days ago [-]
You know it's okay to admit that China is better at something... This blind patriotism doesn't help in staying competitive.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
We also know that most Chinese battery companies would have been crushed by foreign competitors from Japan and South Korea, had the Chinese gov't effectively not banned them and forced their customers to switch to local Chinese battery makers since 2015.
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
Some Western countries also offer subsidies or other benefits for buyers of solar panels or electric cars.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
Usually no problem with subsidies as long as it is local (eg, GM bailout).

China's gov't subsidies to promote export in markets abroad or undercut foreign competitors are generally prohibited.(see Article 3 Prohitibion of the WTO's Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Agreement).

awongh 4 days ago [-]
This is also seems to be the main factor in the exponential adoption of solar panels/energy.

Yes, it's a trade war with geopolitical implications. But not sure that it outweighs exponential adoption of solar energy. The same might be true here.

ZeroGravitas 3 days ago [-]
There's actually been a lot of research into this for PV that probably applies to EVs too.

After initial government support from western nations mostly it's been economies of scale and innovation that have dropped the price of PV.

Prices that have been called dumping (i.e. sold cheaper than they sell in the home market, which harms the foreign manufacturers in an unfair way) have repeatedly been further beaten by the next generation of panel.

I expect to see similar with batteries, the main component by cost of EVs.

CalRobert 4 days ago [-]
To be fair this is nothing new, look at the Chicken Tax for instance
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
The Chicken Tax was initially a response to Europe's protectionist measure against American poultry imports. I see how it eventually turned into a protectionist racket, but most never seem to look at the source of the problem.

I feel that the same way about EVs, or EV batteries in particular.

meyum33 4 days ago [-]
IIRC Chinese EV manufacturers on average lose like 9k USD per car sold.
Arnt 4 days ago [-]
When is the number from?

Is it one of the numbers where someone has divided the cost of building a new factory by the number of items produced in the first year and arrived at a huge loss per item produced?

presentation 4 days ago [-]
Only because the west and Japan are failing to subsidize their own industries. This is called competition. Yes please.
jychang 4 days ago [-]
https://insideevs.com/news/716063/china-ev-subsidies-byd-tes...

> China’s aid to domestic new energy vehicles amounted to roughly $5.6 billion until 2022 when the direct payments to manufacturers were phased out.

$5.6 billion in subsidies over 10+ years. Ford has $29bil cash on hand Q3 2024. GM has $32bil cash on hand Q3 2024. Tesla has $33bil cash on hand Q3 2024.

This is all public data (legally required for all publicly traded companies) anyone can check.

American car companies don't need subsidies. They need to be less incompetent about spending their money, and whine less begging for USA government subsidies.

If you believe the USA should send more money to their car companies, you're a sucker who fell for propaganda from car companies who are asking for handouts to increase their profit margin.

FooBarWidget 4 days ago [-]
Besides, reducing all of these achievements in EV technology to mere "subsidies" is being willfully blind. CEOs of incumbent car makers have been communicating for some time now how competitors such as BYD have a real technological edge thanks to research, innovation and having painstakingly built large, comprehensive and efficient supply chains. Subsidies are somewhat involved but not that much, especially considering that (1) subsidies are declining, (2) EU and US also subsidize. Have people ever looked at EV tax breaks in the Netherlands, or more in general tax breaks for any sort of R&D work (WBSO)? Nobody ever complained about that.

Cars such as by BYD are already profitable even without subsidies. That's why subsidies are declining.

One really has to ask oneself: if we subsidize incumbent automakers, are they really going to achieve the same level of competitiveness and innovation? Or will they just use it to launder more profits for shareholders? Be honest.

tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
I think we should stop pretending that Chinese EV/battery companies can compete on their own without Papa Xi's big wallet or baton to keep out foreign competition.
FooBarWidget 3 days ago [-]
What does that even mean? Direct EV subsidies are already gone. In the first place, they were meant to start up an industry, not to be sustained forever.

On a higher level, I find your thinking weird. Nobody ever said "let's not pretend $HIGH_SCHOOL_STUDENT can compete on its own without papa's wallet". Everybody thinks that it's natural to invest in a child's education until they can compete on their own in the world.

College enrollment rates have only recently reached a high level.

tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
It's not just mere "subsidies," there is also blatant protectionism. CEOs of incumbents car makers have been warning against the Chinese gov't unsavory anti-market practices to protect their local battery companies and achieve market dominance past 10 years, such as:

1. Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules Car maker is allowed to use high-end foreign technology, while rivals are squeezed into buying local, Trefor Moss, May 17, 2018, the Wall Street Journal

  ... China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded.

  ... Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions.  That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say.

  ... “We want to comply, and we have to comply,” said one executive with a foreign car maker. “There’s no other option.”

2. Why a Chinese Company Dominates Electric Car Batteries, Beijing gave CATL lavish subsidies, a captive market of buyers and soft regulatory treatment, helping it to control a crucial technology of the future. Keith Bradsher and Michael Forsythe, Dec. 22, 2021, The NYTimes

3. The Key to Electric Cars Is Batteries. One Chinese Firm Dominates the Industry. Beijing built the world’s largest EV market, then pressured foreign car makers to use its batteries, Trefor Moss, Nov. 3, 2019, WSJ

  ... China is by far the biggest EV market, and to boost its standing in the fast-growing industry, China began pressuring foreign auto makers to use locally-made batteries

  ... Auto makers weren’t pleased, but they fell in line. During a visit to CATL headquarters in 2017, three Daimler AG executives displayed their irritation shortly after the meeting started, recalled Jiang Lingfeng, then a CATL project manager who prepared a technical briefing for the visitors. One Daimler executive cut off his briefing, said Mr. Jiang. “We’re not interested,” the executive said, according to Mr. Jiang. “The only reason we’re here is that we have no choice, so let’s just talk about the price.”

  ... Still, auto makers bridled at CATL’s dominance, according to Mr. Tsao, the former supply-chain manager there. CATL’s batteries also cost 25% more than those of leading rivals because the company was still learning to mass-produce cost-effectively, he said. “The price is high, and the service is slow,” he said, summing up CATL’s proposition to auto maker clients.

  ... “What the government did was a good thing for China,” said Mr. Jiang, the former CATL project manager. “Without its restrictions, I don’t think CATL would ever have been successful.”
Let's not forget that the EU also followed up with a WTO complaint against China for their NEV regulation that forced tech transfer (see WT/DS549) in 2018, and waited over 6 years to take a countervailing measure (2024/1866) against prohibited subsidies practices.
petre 4 days ago [-]
Oh but they do, only they subsidize dirty diesels.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/subsidies-for-...

tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
ironic comment, considering that the Chinese gov't fossile fuel subsidies's is by far the largest in the world -- or $270+B vs. $3B US (see the IMF's 2023 Fossile Fuel Subsidies Report).

All that to support cheap energy and overcapacity.

mensetmanusman 3 days ago [-]
It has to do with vast state subsidies allowing the supply chain in China to sell below materials cost.

They are in a pickle now because of the pull the rug the whole thing might collapse.

bpodgursky 4 days ago [-]
I want legacy EU/US automakers to pull their heads out of their a* and compete, but anyone who thinks BYD is succeeding only on CCP support is a clown. It's a real company that's brutally demolishing the competition.

(I have a Tesla, but looking at the market, my next car might be a BYD minivan unless someone finally BUILDS A DOMESTIC FULL EV MINIVAN FFS).

chii 4 days ago [-]
> BYD is succeeding only on CCP support is a clown.

their success is an outcome of a brutal competition in the past, orchestrated by the CCP. They're now obviously no longer "helped" by the CCP, but this company (and other companies, which might've died already) were definitely recipients of state support in the early days.

The current crop of ICE car manufacturers in the west did not see it coming, and assumed they'd always have a dominant position. They deserve to lose. However, in the event of a war, this sort of loss would've had huge impact on the industrial capacity of the US, and might directly lead to a loss.

The loss of industrial capacity for ship building in the US is already evident. Back in WW2, it's due to the US's shipbuilding (look up liberty ships) that allowed the logistics to sustain the war and ultimately win. It's due to having the car factories being available to convert to tank factories, that allowed the US to produce the masses of tanks and trucks and such required to sustain the war.

So if a WW2 scenario happens today, the US will not have such options any more. With the exception of perhaps, air power. But surely, china is not only encroaching but likely will succeed in having a domestic plane manufacturing base.

Sanctions, and export restrictions will not help. Tarriffs is only going to make cheap goods more expensive, but will not bring the manufacturing back.

dv_dt 4 days ago [-]
As have many western companies which bailed out their automotive industries during covid and the Great recession as well as earlier instances.

The west should actually operate industrial policies more like China if the outcome is globally cost and quality competitive companies after govt supports have been removed, because it seems like after US bailouts auto companies fattened profits without improving cost quality or competitiveness

powerapple 4 days ago [-]
The issue is in Europe, not US. What China did was to copy what US does, except: Chinese private capital is not as strong as US, that's where the state capital comes into play. Tesla is an US company.

Europe is a very different story, the private capital is very conservative. They are not willing to gamble as US counterparts, and the states are not moving fast enough.

Yeul 3 days ago [-]
European countries actually had industry policies in the 60s and 70s. But countries like Korea and Japan were always going to be cheaper. The Netherlands lost a LOT of many protecting the shipyards.
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
US made like ~8 million cars post war, and now ~16 million.

IMO industrial base is not really issue (except shipping).

Issue is PRC with 4x more population and heavy coordination ability simply moved manufacturing dial to 11. Realistically 50, i.e. last year PRC shipbuilding produced comparable tonnage to entire 5 year US ship building program during WW2. It's not just loss of industrial capacity in some sectors, it's PRC is operating on an entirely different scale that US industry never had.

Building "back" in "Build back better" isn't enough, it has to be much "better" than US manufacturing ever was.

chii 4 days ago [-]
> it has to be much "better" than US manufacturing ever was.

exactly. And i don't see how it is possible, since that's a leap, rather than small incremental gains.

roenxi 4 days ago [-]
> ... their success is an outcome of a brutal competition in the past ...

We're in this really interesting era where it is hard to say whether the US or China has the bigger economy. There have to be enormous error bars around estimating how big an economy is since we're comparing incomparable.

Given that, hopefully there'll be some high profile discussion about what China is doing to achieve this level of success. The part I'm looking forward to will be the analysis of why very low interest rates failed to spur similar competition in the west. Where is the competition? We should have the advantage in this field, groups like YCombinator have a pretty strong track record showing that, if given the chance, private interests are great at building and navigating highly competitive environments.

Hindsight will give us a lot of information - if the automakers turn out to be uncompetitive then it will have been obvious to everyone in the field through the 2010s. Why weren't there competitors emerging in the west? I have a theory that easy credit encourages market centralisation but it isn't obvious where to go to find trustworthy commentary on the idea.

tw04 4 days ago [-]
> Given that, hopefully there'll be some high profile discussion about what China is doing to achieve this level of success.

This doesn’t take more than about 30 seconds of review. The CCP is making long term bets and demanding the private sector do as they’re told. It’s been obvious for a decade that renewable energy is the future. It’s been obvious that electrification of cars is happening whether legacy manufacturers like it or not.

The west can’t see past their next quarterly earnings result, and doesn’t have the stomach to make the long term investments the CCP has demanded of their own manufacturers.

Even Ford, who by all accounts is fully invested in electrification and is all in, has started to pull back because investors aren’t ok with an investment that might take a decade to pay off.

lotsofpulp 4 days ago [-]
>The west can’t see past their next quarterly earnings result,

Assuming "the west" includes the US, the biggest companies in the US have very long investment timelines, much farther than the next quarter. Tesla, whose business includes making cars, lost money for 10+ years as a publicly listed company.

bpodgursky 4 days ago [-]
It's notable that this only happened because Elon held a controlling (or near-controlling) share and pushed for long-term vision against the wishes of institutional investors, bulling them as necessary. The "long investment timeline" did NOT come from wall street.
lotsofpulp 4 days ago [-]
“Wall street” is the one rewarding Tesla with a market cap almost an order of magnitude more than Toyota, even though Tesla’s net income is not much higher than Toyota’s, and Toyota moves many more cars.

“Wall street” (or “the west”) is getting far more on Tesla’s long term ability to grow net income than on Toyota’s.

roenxi 4 days ago [-]
This is not the time to try for simple stabs in the dark, we really should make a serious effort to understand one. The west has been trying to get renewable energy working for more than 15 years, that was the strategy that has people talking about German deindustrialisation and having to read up on what the AfD's policies are. They dumped a lot of political capital into the Energiewende.

> ... because investors aren’t ok with an investment that might take a decade to pay off.

Sure. Why not? I'm happy making investments that take decades to pay off, I want to have access to machines when I'm old. What happened to all the investors who intend to live comfortably in their old age?

nicoburns 4 days ago [-]
> What happened to all the investors who intend to live comfortably in their old age?

They got bought out by investors with shorter-term ambitions, because our economy is set up to reward short-termism, so those people end up with more capital (= market power), and this compounds over time.

danielheath 4 days ago [-]
It's not readily obvious _how much_ more capital you end up with if you make slightly more profitable investment decisions.

Saving $10k per annum and earning 10% on it will make you 1.6 million dollars after 30 years.

If you can get 20% instead, you'll have 11.2 million.

If you somehow managed to get 30%, you'd end up with over 87 million.

codedokode 4 days ago [-]
Probably the problem with West are high wages and unions (especially in Europe). West could still win if it had advanced manufacturing and robotic equipment which nobody else has but this doesn't seem to be the case.
surgical_fire 4 days ago [-]
Bullshit of the ages. China is not even that cheap in terms of labor anymore.

This is just the capital class mantra wanting to reduce labor protections, because of course they will.

chii 3 days ago [-]
> China is not even that cheap in terms of labor anymore.

they're still cheaper than US labour. And their supply chain has proxity benefits that the US no longer has.

And the workforce is reasonably skilled now after a few decades of these skilled labour jobs (watch some YT video of how electronics are assembled there, if you want to see skill).

In cheaper production countries, you'd see similar, but china still has the edge. That's why the higher cost (compared to yester-decade) is not a factor yet, and only some of the manufacturing is being pushed out to places like vietnam, but not all.

The advantage china has is a similar type of advantage that silicon valley has for tech.

deadfoxygrandpa 4 days ago [-]
"Apart from this, with capitalist production an altogether new force comes into play — the credit system, which in its first stages furtively creeps in as the humble assistant of accumulation, drawing into the hands of individual or associated capitalists, by invisible threads, the money resources which lie scattered, over the surface of society, in larger or smaller amounts; but it soon becomes a new and terrible weapon in the battle of competition and is finally transformed into an enormous social mechanism for the centralisation of capitals."

- karl marx, capital volume 1, chapter 25

you should read capital my guy

unsnap_biceps 4 days ago [-]
Are the regulations similar between the US and China? I know Europe has very strict regulations that make it harder for smaller companies to break in.
jasdi 4 days ago [-]
Its because the whole system is pretty abnormal and naturally unstable.

The US Govt represents only 4-5% of the worlds population, but the US Market controls 40-50% of the worlds global market cap value.

The difference between 1930s and today is the powers that be on all sides recognize this is abnormal.

chii 4 days ago [-]
> 4-5% of the worlds population

why is the assumption that all control must be equally shared? I question the premise competely. If you made it, or invested in it, you own it. It just means that the US made, invested or invented the value that the market deems to be 40-50% of the global marketcap.

jasdi 4 days ago [-]
If you own and control more resources than anyone else, you can make things others can't.

But in any ecosystem where other species are growing faster than you are, its natural they will eat into your share, unless the entire ecosystem grows and creates space for everyone.

Age of Empires is a model that worked in the past when there were big difference in capabilities and information flowed much slower. Today it flows so fast, that by the time you develop capabilities to react to one thing, something new has already emerged. That doesn't mean people wont mindlessly try to control things like they did in the past. It just means they will fail, overwhelmed by the rate of change.

bravo33 3 days ago [-]
this will hold true regardless to think that resources will be shared evenly or even close is wrong it will be even worse with ai and new technology.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
China is quite anti-competitive. BYD/CATL's success, which comes from their battery market dominance, is a largely outcome of the CCP's protectionism past ~10 years.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
China is quite anti-competitive. BYD/CATL's success is a largely outcome of the CCP's protectionism past ~10 years.
tooltalk 3 days ago [-]
China is quite anti-competitive. BYD/CATL's success is a largely outcome of the CCP's protectionism.
fastball 4 days ago [-]
If tariffs don't bring domestic manufacturing back, what will?
surgical_fire 4 days ago [-]
Tariffs are a 2-way street. It is very naive to presume the countries you raise tarrifs against will not enact similar tarriffs against you. And then they will do business with your competitors.

Except now you are limited to your local market, while the much larger and more dynamic global market will grow and evolve without you.

suraci 4 days ago [-]
The devaluation of dollar, this is the ultimate way

Let's say, if USD/CNY drops by 20%, the advantage of Chinese products will be erased, if USD/CNY drops by 50%, Chinese industry will be destroyed

Basically, this is the most important method the US used to counter the challenge of Japan in the 1980s.

surgical_fire 4 days ago [-]
Would this work well? I mean there are many implications in devaluing USD. Would this potentially lower USD demand as a reserve currency in other countries?
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
US "convinced" JP, DE, FR, UK to appreciate relative to USD during Plaza Accords in 80s, those countries still got to sell cars/strategic hightech in US, just less of it. US has less leverage to "convince" PRC who has more autonomy to set their dollar peg. US unlikely to allow PRC tech regardless... sanctions/export control and all. PRC fine with devalueing alone with US to keep chipping away at RoW shares. Also consider this means PRC GDP increasing by 20-50% nominal, i.e. surpassing US band, not just on PPP terms but absolute terms.
surgical_fire 4 days ago [-]
As you said, the players involved are different, but also the context of 2020's is much different than that of the 80's.

In the late 80's you had a crumbling USSR, a bunch of secondary markets slowly opening up to global trade, and a clear sole economic superpower prevailing.

Now things are a lot less clear. The US is speakig of tariffs (which is essentially restricting themselves from a lot of global trade) while China is more than willing to make trade deals left and right. They already have a large, educated, and skillful workforce.

Sanctions/Export control work to a point, presuming they can't build up their own capabilities and do their own agreements with other countries. It is something you can do well against minor players, not as well against other powerhouses.

suraci 4 days ago [-]
> Would this potentially lower USD demand as a reserve currency in other countries?

We don't know, in the 80s, the devaluation of the USD did not weaken its position as the reserve currency, will it be same this time without USSR collapsing and Gulf War?

More importantly, will the PBOC cooperate with the US like the central banks of Japan and Germany did?

I don't know the answer, but I think it won't take too long to see the answer.

unsnap_biceps 4 days ago [-]
Frankly I'm worried that nothing will. We've botched using money to get large plants spun up here.

https://www.theverge.com/23030465/foxconn-lcd-factory-wiscon...

Is there a real appetite from the population for these jobs?

fastball 4 days ago [-]
Direct cash injection is frequently the worst way to do this, so I don't think that failure is particularly indicative of a complete inability to achieve onshoring of manufacturing.

Tariffs certainly seem superior to me, especially if paired with tax cuts in other areas.

chii 4 days ago [-]
> Tariffs certainly seem superior

tariffs seems a roundabout way to try achieve something.

Why not directly invest in making manufacturing, if the US gov't wants that specific result? The US is deeply afraid of the idea of state owned companies, coz the past red scare have put off the idea.

Of course, private industry will cry foul - that they cannot compete on the wages that would've been needed to attract the workers, etc.

pm90 4 days ago [-]
A sane industrial policy.
fastball 4 days ago [-]
Could you clarify further? "Sane" is very subjectively defined.
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
I think you should not sell advanced industrial equipment, electronic parts and computers to everyone willing to pay because they can be used to produce things (including things that shoot, fly and explode). Sell only what can be used for entertainment, not for manufacturing.

For example, make an export version of GPU that has very poor precision and makes mistakes in calculations. Nobody notices if the pixels in a game are colored little wrong, but you cannot do science on such a GPU.

Also restrict export of scientific data. Keep monopoly on manufacturing things.

chii 4 days ago [-]
it sounds to me more insane to try dividing the world more.
orwin 4 days ago [-]
> their success is an outcome of a brutal competition in the past, orchestrated by the CCP. [...] this company (and other companies, which might've died already) were definitely recipients of state support in the early days.

So, like VCs do in the US.

Look, I'm not a fan of state capitalism, but you have to admit, it's way more targeted/effective than classic capitalism or corporate capitalism. I wish that countries that do not have the US money do the same.

CalRobert 4 days ago [-]
Any thoughts on the vw id van?

I was looking at one before we moved somewhere we don’t need a car

petre 4 days ago [-]
Too much hype around it. It's a subpar van experience as in not quite practical, but an ok family car, drives very nicely. See:

https://www.topgear.com/long-term-car-reviews/volkswagen/id-...

gedy 4 days ago [-]
> I want legacy EU/US automakers to pull their heads out of their a* and compete

Honestly, what can they do? Labor is very expensive here, and would be loads of pushback for a fully automated assembly line. Plus safety, taxes, and other regulations would push the price up.

bpodgursky 4 days ago [-]
US manufacturers can get within 20% cost difference which tariffs can ameliorate. That's fine. A few extra environmental and labor protections won't break everything. TSMC managed it.

But right now it's... 100% or 200%, or infinity since they simply have no models for some form factors. That's just rank incompetence.

chefandy 4 days ago [-]
Isn’t most of the manufacturing already done in countries with far cheaper labor costs? It seems like a design problem, to me.
kube-system 4 days ago [-]
The big 3 don't outsource to anywhere much cheaper than Canada and Mexico for most of the stuff they sell here.
chefandy 3 days ago [-]
Mexico is a lot cheaper though, no?
AngryData 4 days ago [-]
Labor costs are a fraction of the value of a vehicle, they can't explain vehicles costing over twice or thrice as much as overseas competitors.
est 4 days ago [-]
> Labor is very expensive here

Sandy Munro said labor counts 10%~15% of the cost. It's the labor efficiency that matters.

arcticbull 4 days ago [-]
Energy costs are generally lower in the US and it almost entirely balances out.
yard2010 4 days ago [-]
He means "treat workers like slaves, deny basic human rights, etc." if I'm not mistaken.
SoftTalker 4 days ago [-]
Drag coefficient probably makes a minivan EV with good range quite difficult.
bpodgursky 4 days ago [-]
There's an EV Hummer... they can figure it out.
SoftTalker 4 days ago [-]
Yeah, I did some cursory research and the reason most claimed is that minivans are simply not that popular.

But neither are Hummers, yes they appeal to some people but you really don't see a lot of them out on the road.

srockets 4 days ago [-]
Minivans are extremely popular in the US, when lifted and with the roof removed from the back.
prmoustache 4 days ago [-]
I wouldn't call it mini though.
srockets 2 days ago [-]
The hauling capacity is equivalent to a minivan, even if the footprint is bigger.
bee_rider 4 days ago [-]
Is that true? They are big but seem naturally… round. Teardrop-y.
est 4 days ago [-]
LiAuto Mega had drag coefficient of just 0.215 cd
jsight 4 days ago [-]
Yeah, it'd likely need 150kwh or so. That'd probably make it a $70k product, and I doubt the market for $70k minivans is huge.

Then again, that is about the price of the id.buzz and some find it appealing with its much smaller pack.

toast0 4 days ago [-]
> BUILDS A DOMESTIC FULL EV MINIVAN FFS

Well there's the VW, but it's not domestic (built in Germany).

The minivan segment is shrinking again though. Sales have been dropping and most of the work van models from established companies have been cancelled. Could be room for a new entrant to make a van that people want to buy?

prmoustache 4 days ago [-]
FWIW the Dacia Spring is cheaper than the Byd Dolphin. The Opel Corsa and Astra and its Peugeot and Citroen counterpart seem decent and don't have any equivalent in the Byd Lineup, especially the wagon version (Astra Sports Tourer) which I could totally drive.
kvanlier 4 days ago [-]
Dacia Sprong is also built in China by Dongfeng. Locally (China), it’s called the Dongfeng Nano Box. It's a great value car.
tarsinge 4 days ago [-]
That’s the narrative I keep reading but meanwhile here in Europe the only BYD (and Chinese) EV models that are sold are luxury ones, mostly SUV. Where are these all these cheap decent Chinese EVs the market is supposed to be flooded with?

Also specifically where are affordable family cars? Seems Chinese are following the same playbook as other legacy manufacturers: you want a family car? That’s gonna be a SUV. Oh sorry you want non ridiculous cargo space? That means our biggest luxury SUV at 70k€ (that has the cargo space of a cheap small minivan from the 2000s).

3 days ago [-]
4 days ago [-]
tomcam 4 days ago [-]
Do you think those cheap decent EVs would pass US safety test testing?
whynotmaybe 4 days ago [-]
Easily as they are already 5 stars on the euro ncap.

https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/byd/seal/50012

kube-system 4 days ago [-]
Passing safety tests is mostly an exercise in designing for a target market.

If you want to sell a car for a global market, you design it to pass the tests that are required to sell it there.

The reason a $5000 Chinese microcar EV with 50 mile range and 45mph top speed probably isn't going to meet US safety standards because it's a pointless exercise. The car isn't designed for those buyers, and will never be sold there.

EVs built for western market export will be more expensive, but 'cheap' by western standards, and designed for those markets.

dalyons 4 days ago [-]
Yes. They pass euro and others so why not. Have you even looked?
tomcam 4 days ago [-]
Only one I could find was this:

https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2017/BYD/K11%20M

Am I looking in the wrong place?

Freedom2 4 days ago [-]
Do they pass American? As far as I'm aware, American safety standards are of the highest in the world, in part due to the amount of reckless driving here and general lack of road-sense.
dalyons 4 days ago [-]
This sounds like something you think should be true because it’s “just so”, but I don’t see any evidence that it actually is. NCAP seems quite strict, perhaps more than NHTSA
prmoustache 4 days ago [-]
The cybertruck being sold only in the USA is a proof it is quite the opposite actually.
ryuno_k 4 days ago [-]
Read this article: https://www.zhihu.com/question/639536083/answer/3542708279 Then you would find out how reliable these Chinese EV is
csomar 4 days ago [-]
Certainly better than the cybertruck.
more_corn 4 days ago [-]
I reluctantly concede that BYD makes a good car. I’ve ridden in half a dozen of them in the last two weeks. Smooth, comfortable, the ergonomics are good and clean. The driver assist visuals are clean. (Pulling out of a restaurant last night the driver could see the projected path of the vehicle and widened his turn to prevent scraping the rear right quarter panel). My one complaint is that there appears to be an internal rgb disco mode. Oh and they appear to start at $21k. (Don’t quote me on that, my conversation math might have been wrong)

If the projected total cost of ownership holds, these cars (and those of the other 4 big Chinese electric car companies) will own the global market over the next decade (minus places that implement protectionist tariffs like the 100% tariffs in the US)

Glawen 4 days ago [-]
I drove my first BYD car last week, a hybrid Seal. I was pleasantly surprised by the confort and power, it kept up with the Audis on das autobahn. Only downside was the suspension, not european enough i would say.

However, software wise... They obviously are too cheap to pay a native to translate the UI. some translation end with _1. The worst offenser was the copilot button, where you never know if it is on or not. It makes crazy moves and seem to move the steering wheel even while off (lane assist is off) Also the Adaptative Cruise Control is not the best calibrated, but it works well

chii 4 days ago [-]
> I reluctantly concede that BYD makes a good car.

why the reluctance? If they make a good car, there should be no reluctance in accepting it. Other than, of course, nationalism and/or racism. Just like how in the past, japanese cars were "reluctantly" accepted as good quality cars at cheap prices.

more_corn 4 days ago [-]
The reluctance was in part tongue in cheek. In part reluctance to attribute quality and durability to a newcomer. Cars are complex and history is littered with failed car companies.

DeLorean is a good example. Ex GM designer, decided he’d make his own car company. Killer styling, shitty PRV motor. The 88mph thing from Back to the Future is a bit of a joke on the underpowered engine in a heavy car. It’s actually quite a challenge to get that thing up to speed.

In that example the engine fails the long term quality test due to (among other things) the valley of death, a V shape in the top of the engine where water pools and rusts right through.

The chassis fails maintenance tests because the cooling system uses a combination of hard and soft lines (remember the engine is in the back, radiator in the front) so replacing degraded cooling hoses takes days as you replace 30 different rubber hoses. Both of these maintenance shortcomings only become apparent years later.

So BYD looks good so far. But time will tell. (Will the batteries last? Are the electronics repairable? Are there unexpected shortcomings?)

codedokode 4 days ago [-]
> The 88mph thing from Back to the Future is a bit of a joke on the underpowered engine in a heavy car. It’s actually quite a challenge to get that thing up to speed.

As I remember, indeed, they had to use a train.

csomar 4 days ago [-]
BYD has been producing cars for 20 years now. They are hardly a new comer but only recently were able to make it into the "big league".
csomar 4 days ago [-]
> Oh and they appear to start at $21k.

They are only $10k in China. In other countries, it's usually $17k+ depending on customs, transport, other "fees".

gempir 4 days ago [-]
Fast Fashion in the automobile industry. I wish we would focus on Cars that last 20+ years again instead.

Cars that are repairable, that have common parts across the industry so any mechanic can work on them.

Maybe even upgradeable cars so you can make it more environmentally when new technology develops.

Will they be the most environmentally friendly to drive? No probably not, but the manufacturing of cars is super environmentally expensive too.

est 4 days ago [-]
Yes BYD had the most R&D staff, but that's the problem: There are simply too many brands under BYD's umbrella. Every line-up tries to re-invent the wheel with R&D of their own

- The vanilla BYD (discontinued, mostly ICE cars)

- the E series

- Dynasty series

- Ocean series

- Formula Leopard

- Denza

- Yangwang

- commercial vehicles, batteries, railway transports, OEMs, etc.

And many models are overlapping with each other. Jack of all trades, the best selling one is the Seagull from the Ocean series and it costs about $10k

apexalpha 4 days ago [-]
Western companies like Stellantis have 13 different brands for different customers, too.

It's just how car companies operate. They want to sell their customers the illusions of exclusivity while buying a car from the biggest car company on earth.

csomar 4 days ago [-]
It might not be a bad strategy starting up. You don't know which R&D is going to pan out, so you start a lot of different branches and let the market select the best.
4 days ago [-]
kube-system 4 days ago [-]
Sounds like pre-bailout GM
nameleftblank 4 days ago [-]
It's odd to me that after so much proof in the past people in the West continue to take China's numbers at face value. I'm not here to start saying they are out to trick people, but the culture around reporting is just different.

It's like someone who just started their career not realizing that resumes are supposed to be a little "inflated" and you are supposed to talk yourself up a bit. People who see your resume are going to mentally knock it back down ~30% or so, everyone plays the game so if you write it without any kind of little embellishments, you are going to be undervalued.

Same effect here, go to China and talk to Chinese people and see how many of them have strong faith in Chinese stocks, I haven't met a single one who would have the same confidence we have in US/EU company numbers (although the auditing system/industry and where it fails in the US could be a whole discussion on its own). Everyone there knows they are all adding a bit (or sometimes a lot) of hot air. It's not seen as fraud so much as it's just the way people do things. One concrete example to illustrate a behavior - they might simply take every single person in their R&D department from secretary and janitor on up and make them "R&D staff", it's an easy way to get free press and seem more advanced.

We can read SEC reports or filings all we want, but you have to question where the numbers are coming from. The brand manager and company rep is the one telling us how many R&D staff they have (which conveniently lends credibility to their company) but there's no real oversight from any independent group on verifying those numbers.

Summary - BYD cars are better than the biggest naysayers want you to think, but they are almost certainly not doing as well as they claim.

4 days ago [-]
yard2010 4 days ago [-]
How many Chinese are needed to find a better name than "Build your Dreams" though?
75w 4 days ago [-]
Do names matter that much? Are ford, audi and Chrysler great names or are they just familiar?
kube-system 4 days ago [-]
American cars can literally write "this is a trick" or "avoid this" on the front and people will still buy it anyway:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/dodge

csomar 4 days ago [-]
Apple and now BYD should be the definitive argument on why names do not matter.
CalRobert 4 days ago [-]
Apple is a great name though....
CalRobert 4 days ago [-]
I prefer lucky goldstar
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
They also have brands like Geely which looks English but doesn't mean anything.
DiogenesKynikos 21 hours ago [-]
"Build Your Dreams" is a backronym for BYD, which are the initials of the Chinese name of the company, Biyadi (比亚迪), which doesn't actually mean anything!

The name of the company has a convoluted history, but ultimately goes back to the name of the street the company was founded on, Yadi Road.

kraftman 4 days ago [-]
Is it worse than Face Book?
__m 3 days ago [-]
The name is Biyadi
librasteve 4 days ago [-]
BYD must be all over Starmer to build a plant in the U.K. … wonder why he is holding out I would much rather buy a BYD than a UK screwdrivered car now Musk has ruled out UK plant
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
To make modern cars you need advanced industrial equipment and machines, robots. Where does China manage to get them? Did West sell these strategic resources to a competitor to get little short-term profit? Or did they learn how to make them themselves?
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
Foreign companies sold them, thinking PRC couldn't make them. Made a killing for 20 years. Then tale as old as time. PRC started making them, now adding more industrial robots than nearly everyone else combined last few years.
mitthrowaway2 4 days ago [-]
They actually even sold them at a lower price in China than in the west, to exploit price discrimination.
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
Recently, to compete with PRC competitors entering market. Growing up in 90s, they were price gouging hardcore. Was family friends with someone high up in ABB China executive. They were printing money for a while.
surgical_fire 4 days ago [-]
> Or did they learn how to make them themselves?

I love the low-key racism on these comments. "How would those stupid peoples learn to make nice things?"

It's not much of a surprise. China could offer cheap unskilled labor initially, basic factories are set up there. They could use this to grow their skilled, educated workforce, and gradually increase the complexity and capabilities of their industries.

I know that people like you would love if poor countries were kept as just manual labor resource extraction, but turns out economies don't really work like that. There are incentives and competition all aroud, among companies, among countries, etc and so forth.

Manufacturing, especially for complex products, can be a supply chain nightmare. Any edge your competitors have against you may spell your doom. You cut costs where you can. You get suppliers where they are cheaper, you move factories to where they are cheaper, all this while trying to satisfy your customers.

I find it particularly funny nowadays that a lot of people from the US have a hard on for tariffs, as if this is going to save them from anything. Tariffs are interesting that they are typically reciprocal. You apply tarrifs on some of my important industries, I do the same against you, and then I go do business with your competitors.

robomartin 4 days ago [-]
This is a difficult topic with too many tentacles to explore here in great detail.

I think Chinese EV's are Trojan Horses.

Why?

Well, without protectionist policies they could implode auto manufacturers everywhere. It would be a game-over extinction event.

In addition to this, they would also implode even more layers of industry and the supply chain outside of China. Again, game over.

The other effect has to do with energy. Nobody has enough energy to support a full transition to EV's. That has been the case for a very long time and it is even worse now when AI data centers are at the top of the list for energy.

Which means that the world will have to build new power generation capacity at a staggering rate in order to support EV's and AI.

Where will all the components and systems come from to build this generation capacity? China.

They manufacture everything and can do it (and are willing to do it) for less than anyone else. Their internal supply chains have been optimized over decades to create competitive advantages that do not exist anywhere in the world. From blenders and microwave ovens to solar panels, every component that goes into making inverters, storage, mechanical, etc.

Also, think of everything required to support massive EV deployment: Charging stations, transformers, power lines and myriad other components and systems. All made in China.

Finally, the renewables power generation infrastructure requires maintenance at roughly modulo 25 years. And, once again, all of that material will come from China.

If one were to be strategic and have the advantage of time and patience, making cheap EV's that can be sold by tens of millions of units per year into every possible corner of the world becomes a genius Trojan Horse strategy with massive long-term payoff.

And then, if we were to add a little conspiracy-theory flavor in there...Imagine a scenario where they carefully backdoor control into everything. They would be able to remotely shutdown any town, city, state, province or country. Did I go too far on that one? Well, human history proves we are capable of doing horrible things to each other, you know, like walking people into gas chambers and carpet bombing. We are one good power outage away from being cavemen. I wouldn't put anything past the realities of the human condition.

And then add cheap mass-produced humanoids to that equation.

Well played I say. The next few decades will be in a range between interesting and horrific.

JTyQZSnP3cQGa8B 4 days ago [-]
French car makers sat on their asses since the 80s. Their repair shops are dumps where you are scammed every time you go. Last but not least, they moved the production of their car to cheap countries. Their car sucked until Japanese companies like Toyota came and threatened their business. They deserve to have their asses kicked for all this.

As for the "made in China," it’s not a Trojan horse, it’s the reality we have since the 80s too. Everything is already made in China, except cars. If I want to be patriotic, I buy local food or clothes, it’s the only choice I have nowadays.

Nothing would change except a few French billionaires complaining about a foreign company eating their lunch by selling cheap cars that people can afford. I certainly can’t afford those new EVs, but I could buy a BYD, it’s the only choice I have and it’s not China’s fault. It’s the greed of all the western companies who sold cheap crap at expensive prices.

occz 4 days ago [-]
If the car industry is that important to the west, then we can nationalize it and strip the current ownership/management of everything they gained from the venture, since they've clearly squandered their lead in the space in favour of siphoning of cash instead.

Alternatively, we could reduce the relevance of the car market entirely by transitioning towards a transportation system that is not focused on automobiles, favouring trains (these are still competitive when built in Europe afaik) and bicycles (we'd have to learn to make these in the west again, but this is a smaller leap than doing the same for cars). This also helps with the energy consumption issue since these modes of transportation are vastly more energy efficient.

robomartin 4 days ago [-]
> If the car industry is that important to the west, then we can nationalize it

Nope. History has taught us --many times and across many cultures-- that this is a truly bad idea.

> we could reduce the relevance of the car market entirely by transitioning towards a transportation system that is not focused on automobiles, favouring trains

Nope. If we are talking about the US, this is impossible. It would require a complete re-engineering of not only our society but every single town and city. We have enough problems that we fail to address to add another pipe dream to the list. Look at the disaster that is the high speed train project in California. Now imagine that multiplied by a thousand, or ten thousand.

> and bicycles <snip>.

C'mon.

> This also helps with the energy consumption issue since these modes of transportation are vastly more energy efficient.

Given reality, this is irrelevant.

occz 4 days ago [-]
>> If the car industry is that important to the west, then we can nationalize it

>Nope. History has taught us --many times and across many cultures-- that this is a truly bad idea.

I don't think there's any valid argument for protectionism without accountability or in the very least any form of return from the car industry. Currently, there's very little of that.

>> we could reduce the relevance of the car market entirely by transitioning towards a transportation system that is not focused on automobiles, favouring trains

>Nope. If we are talking about the US, this is impossible. It would require a complete re-engineering of not only our society but every single town and city. We have enough problems that we fail to address to add another pipe dream to the list. Look at the disaster that is the high speed train project in California. Now imagine that multiplied by a thousand, or ten thousand.

China has built arguably the most expansive HSR network basically from scratch in 10 years - what essentially entails a complete re-engineering. Decarbonizing will be a complete re-engineering. Hell, building out the road network was arguably also a complete re-engineering.

Quit making excuses and start delivering results, there's no valid argument for the west adopting a position of patheticism given our past.

>> and bicycles <snip>.

>C'mon.

Not exactly what I would call a compelling argument.

>> This also helps with the energy consumption issue since these modes of transportation are vastly more energy efficient.

>Given reality, this is irrelevant.

Yikes.

robomartin 4 days ago [-]
> I don't think there's any valid argument for protectionism without accountability

Why are you changing the subject? I replied to your idea of nationalization.

> China has built arguably the most expansive HSR network basically from scratch in 10 years

The US is not China. We cannot do what they have done. There are dozens of reasons for this.

Again, go study the California high speed rail project, stop and think.

>> and bicycles <snip>.

> Not exactly what I would call a compelling argument.

The idea is ridiculous. Even countries that are known for bike rarely get to even 10% bike utilization. Do your research and do a little analysis. In the US, the idea is just plain ridiculous. Our town and cities are not built for bikes or mass transport.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/m1vonk/how_many_pe...

>>> This also helps with the energy consumption issue since these modes of transportation are vastly more energy efficient.

>> Given reality, this is irrelevant.

> Yikes.

Well, I am glad you learned something there. You have a lot more to understand yet. I mean, we can't even maintain our existing roads and you are talking about building entire new rail-based mass transportation systems. Again, while commendable in isolation, reality makes this either impossible or nonsensical.

I think a reasonably large fleet of self driving EV's is something that is within the realm of attainable reality in the US. If a robotic Uber-like service were to be available at a low enough cost, people might start to question owning cars or driving them all the time. That is also well within the practical reality of life in the US in most towns and cities. And that's within the realm of something that is attainable without having to rip-up and re-engineer every town and city in this country.

More importantly, this would not require a full electrification of our ground transportation system at a 1:1 scale; meaning, we will not need to replace 300+ million existing vehicles with 300+ million EV's. I have no clue what the right number might be. I could see a scenario where we end-up with 100 million EV's and 50 to 100 million IC vehicles in, say, 30 years. Most of the EV's might be robotic ride-share vehicles and the IC vehicles might serve special purposes.

That's the difference between ideas. What I am talking about is attainable and likely sensible. The energy, resource and ecological benefits are plain to see. Behavioral changes are not massive and align well with existing patterns. It might even save people money by making car ownership (and the insurance and maintenance that goes with them) less necessary. Etc. Trains and bikes will not ever work here. Nice dream. Not real.

tzs 3 days ago [-]
> The other effect has to do with energy. Nobody has enough energy to support a full transition to EV's.

If every ICE car in the US were replaced with an EV driven the same distance per year we would need about 20% more electricity.

Raising US electricity production 20% over a 10 or 20 year transition to nearly all EVs doesn't seem to be unreasonable.

Note that this does not mean that the US would need to produce 20% more energy. As ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs the oil that would have been refined into gasoline for those ICEs could instead be used for electricity production.

kube-system 4 days ago [-]
> Charging stations, transformers, power lines and myriad other components and systems. All made in China.

Is that really true? It has been a while since I have worked with anyone in that industry but the last time I did, quite a lot of it was made in the US.

robomartin 4 days ago [-]
> quite a lot of it was made in the US

Assembled in the US might be a better way to put it. Nearly every component is made in China or elsewhere. This already makes less and less financial sense for a wide array of products, from consumer to industrial.

For example, components and assemblies for televisions are made in China (and Korea). They are shipped to Mexico and assembled there into televisions. This is because there's volumetric efficiency in shipping well-packed components for assembly in Mexico. A finished television in a box consumes most of the shipping volume with air. You pay a lot to ship air. If, instead, you can pack components efficiently, you can ship more TV's per container as parts than as finished products.

kube-system 4 days ago [-]
Are you saying this because you have experience in the industrial power products industry? Or because you're presuming it's the same as how TVs are built?

Because when I worked in the industry, it wasn't. A lot of the components weren't stocked on a shelf, they were made to spec, on demand, and occasionally under the supervision of a customer inspector. It's not at all like assembling a TV.

robomartin 4 days ago [-]
I am narrowly talking about what I might call the mass elements of the EV transition. The simplest example of this would be chargers. Regardless of where they might be assembled, all components are likely made in China and some in other places. Consumer (home) chargers are likely all fully manufactured in China.

Yes, I did work with high power electronics. However, I do not have any experience in grid-scale electrical components (large transformers, transmission lines, etc.). I would not be surprised to learn that a significant portion of this is sourced from China. This is certainly true of a large percentage of residential, commercial and industrial electrical components. Walk around Home Depot and see how many US made electrical components you can find.

I am not trying to be negative. Sometimes reality just sucks, and ignoring it does not lead to solutions.

kube-system 3 days ago [-]
Sure, there are certainly a lot of parts made in China, for a lot of things in a lot of product categories. I did work for a short time at a company that made grid scale components and pretty much all of the things they sold were made domestically. I also worked for a few other industrial manufacturing companies, and I noticed a pattern -- things that are too big to fit into a shipping container, or too custom/critical to outsource tended to get made domestically.

> Walk around Home Depot and see how many US made electrical components you can find.

Quite a bit actually, especially compared to other product categories. Breaker boxes and breakers are often made in Mexico. The wiring is mostly made in the US. Much of the conduit, boxes, and fastening hardware is too. More basic switches and receptacles are often US origin, and many with more involved electronics inside will be Chinese. It's probably one of the most US-made aisles in the store.

I know because I've replaced most of the electrical system in my house since I've bought it, and pretty much the only Chinese components are lamps/fixtures, and a couple of USB charger outlets, and some GFCIs. The boxes, romex, service connection, and grounds are all US origin. The breakers are all Mexican. The switches and outlets are all US, and the GFCIs are mixed origin with a few being Chinese.

I mean, I get your point that buying more stuff is good for the Chinese -- but that could apply to just about anything, I don't think there's some conspiracy to do with electrical equipment here.

maxglute 4 days ago [-]
Bingo.

PRC EVs -> PRC EV charging piles -> PRC renewable hardware -> PRC infra -> reduce oil exporter leverage (US). Throw in software, surveillance, gps, megaconstellation connection. It's a play for entire transportation + connectivity stack.

nextworddev 4 days ago [-]
It's part of their plan to shift fossil-fuel economy stack to electric stack, just so China can own a piece of the supply chain in as many industries as possible
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
> And then, if we were to add a little conspiracy-theory flavor in there...Imagine a scenario where they carefully backdoor control into everything. They would be able to remotely shutdown any town, city, state, province or country.

Doesn't that apply equally to every Western product which has a CPU? Like that cars made by a billionaire who makes rockets and digs tunnels?

robomartin 4 days ago [-]
> Doesn't that apply equally to every Western product which has a CPU? Like that cars made by a billionaire who makes rockets and digs tunnels?

Well, I don't know about the qualification process for tunnel digger or EV components. In aerospace, each and every part you use goes through a very detailed qualification process before it is selected into a design.

Industry is based on trust. Using TSMC as an example, every semiconductor company using their foundry works on the basis of trust and verification. In other words, there's a likely reasonable expectation and assurance that the chips will be made as designed and not modified with nefarious intent.

You then have companies like ST Micro, who are heavily investing in their own fabs. There are assurances there as well.

My guess is that the path to potentially dangerous technology might be through products entirely made in China. A Chinese EV has no US or European regulatory oversight of any kind for potentially malicious software and back door access. The same is true of such things as EV chargers and other potentially critical components.

The vectors for such attacks don't have to necessarily be destructive. I'll give you a simple example: We do not make display modules in the US. We don't make the chips that drive them either. Nobody knows what's in them. They are black boxes designers use to make computer monitors, laptops, car dashboards, medical and industrial equipment. It wouldn't be too crazy to add circuitry into these chips to be able to simply shut down or alter the operation of displays at a massive scale. Bingo! You make hundreds of millions of systems inoperable.

This is clearly in crazy conspiracy theory territory. Then again:

https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/30/att_verizon_confirm_s...

Kbelicius 4 days ago [-]
> A Chinese EV has no US or European regulatory oversight of any kind for potentially malicious software and back door access.

If those Chines cars are sold in US or Europe then yes, they do have regulatory oversight.

robomartin 3 days ago [-]
> If those Chines cars are sold in US or Europe then yes, they do have regulatory oversight.

Down to the chip internals level? And how about software qualification and threat analysis?

Remember what VW did with diesel cars?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal

In that case, eleven million cars were sold worldwide between 2009 and 2015. This makes me believe that automotive hardware and software don't really get scrutinized at a level necessary to prevent their use with nefarious intent. Perhaps the new potential reality will change this?

Imagine buying a bunch of Chinese humanoids to work at your factory. Now imagine how much you'd have to trust them. Do you? I am not sure I would.

Way back when the first Bamboo Lab 3D printer came out, I supported their project on Kickstarter and got a few of them. When delivered, we learned they had to connect to the Bamboo (Chinese) cloud service for everything, from printing to software updates and more. Returning them was not possible. We sold them all and got rid of the potential exposure.

Check this out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sVVbtEd64g

binary132 4 days ago [-]
it is frankly impossible to make myself believe that this many people make for an effective and efficient research and engineering organization. Even a company of 1000 people is difficult to organize and scale, at least from what I’ve seen. Maybe they’ve solved management and ops, but I doubt it.
ryuno_k 4 days ago [-]
For those who have a good take on these Chinese EVs. Please read this article: https://www.zhihu.com/question/639536083/answer/3542708279

If you are unable to read Chinese, here is the translation: 12/26 Update (19): The new forces in car manufacturing constantly challenge my worldview. One of our COEM (Car Original Equipment Manufacturer) clients requested that the front windshield be polarized, like polarized sunglasses, so the driver can sleep peacefully when autonomous driving is engaged. We earnestly explained that this poses a major danger to the driver and is illegal since traffic police monitoring wouldn’t see the driver. The client insisted, saying, "We want it this way."

11/27 Update (18): Many people have blind faith in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), thinking they won’t allow things to go unchecked. Strange logic—actions are carried out by individuals, not departments. Whether things are done well depends on the competence of the person in charge. Here’s an example: To rush development timelines for new energy vehicles, some parts don’t even complete the PSW (Part Submission Warrant) process, meaning the EBOM (Engineering Bill of Materials) submitted to MIIT is incomplete. Yet, MIIT still approved it. What does this mean? It shows that MIIT officials lack expertise. It’s understandable—how can you expect a civil servant who passed exams in public policy to outsmart seasoned industry experts?

11/21 Update (17): None of the COEMs we’ve encountered have implemented DFMEA (Design Failure Mode and Effects Analysis). To those claiming that new energy vehicles are safe: do you even know what DFMEA is?

11/6 Update (16): Today’s shocker: One of our components required an environmental impact assessment report. But since the COEM hadn’t even finalized their design—meaning the product hasn’t been manufactured yet—they asked our environmental team to estimate numbers on paper and submit a report to Chinese authorities. This is outright fabrication. Our environmental team is based in Germany… socialism using money to make capitalism bow its head?

10/20 Update (15):

Client A copied BMW’s design but added a special feature of their own, creating design "a". Client B copied Client A’s design, added their own special feature, creating design "b". Client C copied Client B’s design, added their own special feature, creating design "c". Client D copied Client C’s design, added their own special feature, creating design "d". Result: Compared to BMW’s design, design "d" has four additional special features. Consequently, Client D’s vehicle costs and development time skyrocketed. They came to us, asking for cost reductions. I said, "Each car has its unique features. Why must you include all the features from A, B, and C?" Client D replied, "If others can achieve it, so must I. Otherwise, how can I compete and have a selling point?" I said, "If you want everything, of course it’ll be expensive. Plus, with four features, you’ll need four types of testing. You won’t make the SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) deadline." Client D replied, "Then use BMW’s test experiments."

10/7 Update (14): To Zhihu users in Hangzhou: Have you seen Geely’s electric car graveyard? A soccer field full of Emgrand models discarded after just 20,000–30,000 kilometers.

8/23 Update (13): Some outsiders think watching a few videos or reading a few articles makes them experts. Here’s a story for you: A new car manufacturer somehow got the idea of using a cleanroom. After visiting our machining workshop, they demanded a cleanroom be installed.

8/15 Update (12): We recently received a serious customer complaint from a new energy vehicle company. A customer’s car caught fire while driving. Our Tier 1 quality team followed protocol to conduct an RA (Root Cause Analysis). The analysis implicated a component from a Tier 2 supplier. When we involved the Tier 2 supplier in writing the report, they leveraged their other business dealings with the carmaker to pinpoint weaknesses in the carmaker’s processes and rejected the complaint. I’ve been monitoring the carmaker’s official channels, curious to see if they can suppress public opinion and avoid exposure.

Other Notes:

A COEM, to save money, bought individual parts from us and had a third-party assembly plant put them together. The assembly plant didn’t even have a barcode scanner, so they asked us to find a way to distinguish between two visually similar parts. Is this progress or regression?

A COEM launched a car model on a specific date. But two months prior, I already knew the components I was responsible for wouldn’t pass PSW in time. This means the cars shown to customers were empty shells—not even PV (Product Validation) tested.

A COEM bypassed Tier 1 suppliers to purchase parts directly from Tier 2 and asked us to provide assembly services. Reviewing their designs, I repeatedly asked, "You just believe whatever Tier 2 tells you? How are you so gullible?"

A COEM originally worked in consumer electronics and thought car standards were the same. They ignored automotive standards and outsourced manufacturing to us but refused to take design risks.

A COEM used non-automotive-grade components. This means when quality issues arise, there’s no accountability.

Most new car manufacturers are products of capital operations. Employees aren’t genuinely trying to build a successful business. Capitalists enjoy policy benefits, while workers inflate their resumes.

6/29 Update (9): During a COEM collaboration, I asked the client about their equipment’s high-pressure specifications. They said, "Design details are confidential." I asked if they’d conduct high-pressure tests. The client asked, "What’s that?" After explaining it’s an industry standard, they replied, "I don’t understand. Don’t lecture me." I asked if they’d still do it, and they responded, "What do you think?" I said it depends on their design. They replied, "Design details are confidential." How can I work with this? Their response: "You claim to be a top-10 company in the industry and don’t know this? Garbage."

7/18 Update (10): Many COEMs bypass Tier 1 suppliers and go straight to Tier 2. Lacking knowledge of automotive standards, they place no requirements on Tier 2 suppliers. Tier 2 suppliers are thrilled—they save on quality control costs and don’t even perform MSA (Measurement System Analysis). If you demand standards, they simply terminate business with you.

Regarding Supply Chains (11): Our clients include joint ventures, traditional Chinese automakers, and new car manufacturers. Joint ventures and traditional automakers take annual forecasts (FC) seriously. I’ve calculated that FC0+12 and FC12+0 differ by only 10%, with fluctuations spread evenly over months. New energy vehicle companies, however, shrink their forecasts by 70% around FC4+8. Since you’ve already invested in production capacity, you’re forced to accept their relentless price cuts.

SoftTalker 4 days ago [-]
Under communism, doesn't everyone get a job? So are these are a lot of inefficient communist jobs people have just to occupy their time?

I mean what on earth is an automaker doing with 700,000 employees?

General Motors employs 163,000[1]. Ford employs 177,000[2].

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GM/general-motors/...

[2] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/numbe...

oivey 4 days ago [-]
Are either of those numbers relevant? US auto companies heavily outsource component manufacturing to many, many other smaller companies. Seemingly you’d want to compare to compare the supply chain included job numbers along with the number of cars.
srockets 4 days ago [-]
Not just US auto makers. Modern car companies don’t manufacture, they assemble (and for a pretty good reason, but I digress).
timschmidt 4 days ago [-]
Disagree strongly on the soundness of the reasoning. Divesting themselves from manufacturing facilities, equipment, and skilled personnel has been a slow motion trainwreck for the big three US auto manufacturers. It opened them up to competition from Tesla and others. Tesla, who make the majority of their own parts here in the US.
srockets 2 days ago [-]
Tesla manufactures/assembles about as much as any other western car company.
timschmidt 2 days ago [-]
Here's the NHTSA filing: https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-10/MY2025-A...

Honda is the only one who comes close to Tesla.

srockets 1 days ago [-]
This lists country of origin, not manufacturer of said components.
timschmidt 1 days ago [-]
Country of origin is what I said: "Tesla, who make the majority of their own parts here in the US."

And is the relevant measure, as all auto manufacturers employ job shops for various parts.

I don't care if Tesla or Honda manufactured a part in a building under their logo. I care that they invested in US infrastructure and paid US citizens to build the car I drive. That's what country of origin measures.

Heaven forbid we have to fight another war and all the factories and skilled tradespeople are in Mexico or Canada.

srockets 1 days ago [-]
But that wasn’t my point. My point is that Tesla buys the parts and assembles them. They don’t build the parts. Just like VAG for example (who also assembles, and doesn’t build. They’re actually pretty interesting because they insist on multiple vendors in multiple regions for each part)
timschmidt 1 days ago [-]
And my point is that they do not "manufactures/assembles about as much as any other western car company", as you claimed, as roughly 70% of the parts for their entire fleet are made in the US while other manufacturers are hovering at or below 30%.

We can keep going back and forth. It doesn't change the numbers.

srockets 2 hours ago [-]
We're talking about different numbers: I was discussing build/buy, you have some partial numbers about who you buy from.
timschmidt 37 minutes ago [-]
You have provided no numbers.
csomar 4 days ago [-]
One of BYD main advantages (according to economists) is that they have full vertical integration. So maybe it was not a good reason after all.
maxglute 4 days ago [-]
Cursory research and GM had 600k during it's peak.
Qwertious 4 days ago [-]
>Under communism, doesn't everyone get a job?

Under communism, there are no billionaires. China has several hundred billionaires.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of...

cbg0 4 days ago [-]
> China has several hundred billionaires

China allows these billionaires to exist as long as they play ball and toe the party line, because China still owns a controlling share in every Chinese company that exists.

> Ma is an icon in China’s tech industry, one of its most successful and recognizable figures at home and abroad. He was speaking weeks before Alibaba subsidiary Ant Group, owner of the world’s largest digital payments platform, Alipay, was due to go public in Shanghai and Hong Kong. It would have been the biggest initial public offering anywhere in the world. On November 2, 2020, a week after his speech, Ma was summoned for questioning by the same regulators he’d challenged from the stage. Days later, Ant Group’s $34 billion stock market listing was suspended. For nearly three months, Ma disappeared from public view.

https://www.wired.com/story/jack-ma-isnt-back/

FooBarWidget 4 days ago [-]
Why is it a bad thing that wealthy people are kept in check and have to follow laws? Or conversely, why is it a good thing that wealthy people can control the state, like in the US? I think the US being a plutocracy with only a veneer of being a democracy is nothing to be proud of.
cbg0 4 days ago [-]
You're jumping to some pretty extreme conclusions, I'm not in favor of plutocracies or autocracies and I think everyone should follow the law.

I come from an ex-communist country myself and I can tell you that what the political class was doing back then was definitely not "for the people". If you were part of the political elite (or a boot-licker) you had access to fancy things like cheese and chocolate, got to travel outside of the country, could occupy a good job, and other benefits.

I've seen corporations & billionaires run out of control like in the US where political bribery is legal and the government ends up catering to the 0.1% and not the majority of their constituents, and I'm not a fan of this, though I don't think the problem is democracy.

FooBarWidget 3 days ago [-]
Okay but China is in no way comparable to ex-Soviet countries. You can't lazily lump them together just because of a label. There's a reason why PRC as a state still exists today, and it's not just because the government holds power.

The Chinese government enjoys massive support, mostly from poorer rural populations. Western views don't quite believe it, and think it's all an excuse to hold power, but they take the notion of not letting rich people take over the state, quite seriously, especially nowadays.

csomar 4 days ago [-]
> China allows these billionaires to exist as long as they play ball and toe the party line, because China still owns a controlling share in every Chinese company that exists.

That's not different on the West. At least in China you know how much the government owns. In the West it's decided every year by unstable politicians.

cbg0 4 days ago [-]
> That's not different on the West.

It's entirely different, since this doesn't happen in the West. When did a billionaire get disappeared for re-education in the West last time? When was one forced to stop an IPO or sell their shares?

codedokode 4 days ago [-]
Telegram founder Pavel Durov had to roll back his cryptocurrency project after threats from US agencies (SEC if I remember correctly).
killerpopiller 4 days ago [-]
what are you talking about
wumeow 4 days ago [-]
China is communist in name only these days.
gaoryrt 4 days ago [-]
Well, China is a country of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
fastball 4 days ago [-]
It is still very much a one-party state, which is a key component of communism. Same as Vietnam.
codedokode 4 days ago [-]
Wrong. The key point of communism is that everyone contributes to society as much work as they can and gets as much goods as they need. So money become unnecessary. In software world, I would say open source software ecosystem definitely looks like communism. When installing Linux, you install communism.
seszett 4 days ago [-]
It's a key component of dictature, not especially of communism.

Vietnam today might be even less communist than China.

fastball 4 days ago [-]
It's a key component of communism when that one party is a communist party. It is definitely not "name only" (the claim to which I was replying).

I would agree that Vietnam is probably less communist than China. That doesn't really impact my point.

freeone3000 4 days ago [-]
It’s called the Communist Party, but its agenda and policies are not particularly Communist.
fastball 4 days ago [-]
No True Scotsman
prmoustache 4 days ago [-]
Not really.

That is the key component of all communist countries we have had experiences of it but in theory you could see a country adopting a communist constitution and multiple parties fighting over elections to govern and decide on the specifics. So it is not really a key component of communism.

Human greed makes it so that it wouldn't last for long though.

fastball 4 days ago [-]
That just sounds like a remix of "real communism has never been tried". Lots of things are possible in theory, but in practice a big part of why anyone would describe a certain country as "communist" is due to that country being a one-party communist state. If in practice a multi-party democracy and economic communism mix about as well as oil and water, a country still being a single party is relevant.

You can split hairs about marxist-leninist communism and politburos and some sort of pure economic communism, but that mostly seems like pedantry.

prmoustache 4 days ago [-]
But that is still not what defines a country being communist. Just a dictature pretending to implement communism.

Your point is that all red cars with a prancing horse logo are Ferrari. What I am telling you is you will find plenty of red pontiac fiero and toyota MR2 looking like Ferrari up to the prancing horse logo from very far away but when you go much closer or hear them revving it quickly become obvious these are body kits on top of cars that don't have a single genuine Ferrari part inside.

fastball 3 days ago [-]
What makes a country communist?
baybal2 4 days ago [-]
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rickandmortyy 4 days ago [-]
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dreamspire 4 days ago [-]
Unless safe solid state batteries are commercially available, I really don't dare to buy a new energy vehicle, if the battery is damaged it's life-threatening.
drukenemo 4 days ago [-]
So you prefer to sit on 50 liter of a highly flammable liquid instead.
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